Andy Grove

Friday, in Part 1 of this post, I distilled the recent findings of the MIT study, On the Road in 2035 (pdf), and explained why a significant reduction in US fleet fuel use is still decades away: for even with aggressive market penetration of new technologies, the fleet turnover rate will be slow. I then predicted the energy impact of America's new CAFE standards: by 2037, gas consumption should be about 33% lower than it was in 2007 from the change.

Today, in Part 2, I size up Barack Obama's plan to get a million PHEVs on the road by 2015 and Andy Grove's idea to convert existing light duty trucks to plug-in hybrids.

Barack Obama: 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars by 2015

Part of the Obama-Biden New Energy for Ameria plan is a proposal to put one million PHEVs on the road by 2015. To motivate purchasers, it includes a $7,000 tax credit. But how much impact would one million PHEVs really have on our gas consumption? Truth is, almost none. Given that one million PHEVs would be somewhat less than one half of one percent of the 240 million car fleet, at best it will reduce gas consumption by, well, one half of one percent.

And yet, while the immediate gas savings are minimal, this is still a worthy idea.

Can Andy Grove light a fire under America’s sleepy electric car effort?

At the first annual Plug-In 2008 Conference, the former Intel chief called on America to convert ten million of its clunkiest, most gas-hungry SUVs, pickups and minivans into plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs).

Timeframe? Four years.

If Grove had his way, he'd go on to retrofit the remaining 80 million or so US gas-guzzlers to PHEVs through a combination of conversion and new product -- a move that would cut the nation’s imported oil needs in half.

Big, big, big job.