500,000 Electric Cars Would Take 10% of World Lithium. Only.
by Stacy Feldman - Sep 2nd, 2009
Getting 500,000 electric cars on the world's roads by 2015 – 1 percent of all the autos produced today – would gobble 10 percent of the planet's current lithium production.
That's more than enough lithium to meet expected demand, say researchers at consulting firm Gerson Lehrman Group (GLG), who recently released the fear-allaying figures, which were based on what was mined in 2008.
In fact, the world
"could potentially meet demand for up to 2 million lithium-ion battery powered HEV [hybrid-electric vehicles] and EV vehicles in that same period," GLG said.
GLG crunched the numbers following Nissan's announcement that the 24kWh battery pack in its coming zero-emission, all-electric LEAF – unveiled on August 2 – would contain 4 kilograms of lithium.
Prior to the announcement, the automaker (along with just about every other electric-auto outfit) had been hush-hush on the projected lithium footprint of its coming electric fleet. The silence led some analysts to question whether there would be enough of the vital battery material to support a near-term electric car boom.
Nissan's disclosure finally provides a window into what carmakers are actually planning. According to GLG, if the average electric vehicle has a similar 24kWh battery – and if car demand gets to a half a million – then lithium demand would reach around 2,000 metric tons. Current production is at 20,000 metric tons per year.
Electric car enthusiasts around the world surely breathed a sighed a relief from the news. But it came amid a flurry of negative media reports suggesting a shortage of other key elements could imperil the global electric car future.
Most affected by a potential supply crunch would be neodymium, Reuters reports. The little-known element is used to make magnets for electric motors in hybrid cars. Other rare elements that analysts worry about include terbium and dysprosium. Both are used to maintain neodymium's magnetic properties. Anthanum, another scarce material, is a key ingredient in the batteries of hybrid cars.
The worries were exacerbated by recent declarations by China that it will be limiting exports of these "rare earths." China is the world's dominant producer of rare earth minerals, accounting for 93 percent of global production. But not of lithium. And that's probably a good thing.
The new breed of lithium ion-battery is set to become the standard in plug-in and electric vehicles. Any kind of looming lithium supply crunch – or fear of one – could crunch the electric car before it rolls off the assembly line.
Currently, Chile dominates global lithium production. Australia is second. Bolivia houses some of the world's most untapped reserves. The numbers are staggering: The nation is believed to have 50 percent of the world's lithium deposits, with about 5.4 million tons. It is expected to become the world's top supplier.
China is not without its own lithium resources. GLG noted that its scenario excludes the additional capacity coming out of Tibet and the province of Qinghai. In fact, the nation's ramp-up of production there should add a further 10,000 metric tons in total lithium capacity by the early 2010s, assuming it doesn't tighten its grips on these exports, too.
There are new companies, as well, such as Australia's Galaxy Resources and Western Lithium Canada, which are now getting into the lithium game, GLG said.
And the potential for using recyclable material is also promising. It could reach thousands of tons per year.
The bottom line: The situation for lithium is favorable – so much so, suggests GLG, that
"Oversupply might be a more pressing question than lithium availability."
"In the mid-term, questions on lithium supply need not be asked; instead it may well be a case of who can supply lithium the cheapest and currently that ball rests firmly in the established brine producers court - competition in the lithium market may be about to hot up!"
Whether the world can avert a possible "rare earths" supply crunch is another story.
See also:
Nissan Scores $200 Million for Biggest-Ever Electric Car Grid Project
Surprise: Nissan’s Electric Cars to Be Made in the USA
Deutsche Bank: Electric Cars Could Wipe Gas Cars off the Map
McKinsey: World Could Cut Auto Emissions in Half by 2030
Bookmark/Search this post with:
Lanthanum?
Did you mean to say lanthanum instead of anthanum?
Interesting article; kind of disturbing about the other materials, but at least lithium will not be a major issue...
Supplies: Production vs Reserves vs Resources
Your article is extremely well written. I think many people get confused between production, reserves and resources.
The biggest section is called "prospects" or "occurrences" which are of geological interest but may not be of economic interest. There are 230 billion tons of lithium in sea water, but extraction is not (currently) feasible. This could change.
Resources are next. According to the JORC code (Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee) a ‘Measured Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which tonnage, densities, shape, physical characteristics, grade and mineral content can be estimated with a high level of confidence. It is based on detailed and reliable exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques from locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes. The locations are spaced closely enough to confirm geological and grade continuity.
An ‘Indicated Mineral Resource’ is that part of a Mineral Resource for which tonnage, densities, shape, physical characteristics, grade and mineral content can be estimated with a reasonable level of confidence.
A ‘Proved Ore Reserve’ is the economically mineable part of a Measured Mineral Resource. It includes diluting materials and allowances for losses which may occur when the material is mined. Appropriate assessments and studies have been carried out, and include consideration of and modification by realistically assumed mining, metallurgical, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social and governmental factors. These assessments demonstrate at the time of reporting that extraction could reasonably be justified.
Production is the amount of reserve extracted each year. If more lithium is needed every year, production will expand.
There's plenty to go around.
this is NOT fear-allaying
If 1% of the cars would use up 10% of the lithium, then 10% of the cars would use 100% of the lithium. If 10% is the best we can do, then lithium batteries are NOT an adequate answer. As the price of gasoline rises and the availability declines, the world needs to replace eventually ALL the vehicles that use gasoline. They could use fuel, or electricity, or some combination, but unless someone wants to start with the assumption that 90% of the people go away, then making 10% of the vehicle fleet go electric is not the answer.
Whoever put the word "Only" in the headline needs some career counseling to help find another line of work.
Did you even read the
Did you even read the article?
Lithium production is expected to increase substantially, and soon. GLG's analysis simply asks the question: is there enough lithium being produced right now to produce 500,000 to 2 million EVs over the next five years, based on what was mined in 2008? The answer: yes. There is plenty. And keep in mind that lithium producers were operating at about 75 percent of total capacity last year, and a big mining boom is on its way.
Post new comment