NY Times Invents a Climate Science War

Dyson NYTimes Magazine

The cover story of Sunday's New York Times Magazine is devoted to an affectionate portrait of the scientist Freeman Dyson. The news hook is that he's an Obama-loving liberal and a climate skeptic — both at the same time! But here's the real kicker: He's a critic of NASA climate scientist James Hansen. Dyson says:

The person who is really responsible for this overestimate of global warming is Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers. 

This is as good as the Thrilla in Manila!

The magazine plays up this attack on its cover. Pictured is Dyson in close-up, looking like the wise wizard — wrinkles, pointy protruding ears — and in the background, out-of-focus mathematical equations looming on the blackboard. The headline reads: The Global Warming Heretic. The subhead: How did Freeman Dyson — REVERED SCIENTIST, LIBERAL INTELLECTUAL, PROBLEM-SOLVER — wind up infuriating the environmentalists? (The capitalization is in the original.)

Actually, it is The New York Times that has infuriated the climate community even more, using Dyson as a proxy for a climate science war of its own invention. Here's Joe Romm's long headline in response.

NYT magazine profiles climate crackpot, Freeman Dyson, and lets him slander James Hansen — while Revkin gives Dyson’s nuttiness a free pass.

The magazine story is interested in inflating the "conflict" between Dyson and Hansen, instead of the more boring truth: There is a healthy difference of opinion that might get sorted out if the two men had a conversation. That is actually the story that the evidence supports. What is especially unsatisfying -- and manipulative -- is that the Times plays go-between to stoke a fight but fails to tell us what finally happened. Let's follow the action. 

Reporter Nicholas Dawidoff manages to get a response from Hansen about what Dyson had to say about him. Dawidoff writes:

Reached by telephone, Hansen sounds annoyed as he says: "There are bigger fish to fry than Freeman Dyson" who "doesn't know what he's talking about." In an e-mail message, he adds that his own concern about global warming is not based only on models, and that while he respects the "open-mindedness" of Dyson, "if he is going to wander into something with major consequences for humanity and other life on the planet, the he should first do his homework — which he obviously has not done on global warming." 

Here's what Hansen had to say about the reporter and what he told him, in full: 

Tomorrow’s NY Times Magazine article (The Civil Heretic) on Freeman Dyson includes an unfortunate quote from me that may appear to be disparaging and ad hominem (something about bigger fish to fry). It was a quick response to a reporter who had been doggedly pursuing me for an interview that I did not want to give. I accept responsibility for the sloppy wording and I will apologize to Freeman, who deserves much respect. ...

The reporter left the impression that my conclusions are based mainly on climate models. I always try to make clear that our conclusions are based on #1 Earth’s history, how it responded to forcings in the past, #2 observations of what is happening now, #3 models. Here is the actual note that I sent to the reporter after hanging up on him:

"I looked up Freeman Dyson on Wikipedia, which describes his views on "global warming" as below. If that is an accurate description of what he is saying now, it is actually quite reasonable (I had heard that he is just another contrarian). However, this also indicates that he is under the mistaken impression that concern about global warming is based on climate models, which in reality play little role in our understanding — our understanding is based mainly on how the Earth responded to changes of boundary conditions in the past and on how it is responding to on-going changes.

"If this Wikipedia information is an accurate description of his position, then the only thing that I would like to say about him is that he should be careful not to offer public opinions about global warming unless he is willing to first take a serious look at the science. His philosophy of science is spot-on, the open-mindedness, consistent with that of Feynman and the other greats, but if he is going to wander into something with major consequences for humanity and other life on the planet, then he should first do his homework — which he obviously has not done on global warming. My concern is that the public may assume that he has — and, because of his other accomplishments, give his opinion more weight than it deserves."

You read that and it's pretty clear that much has been left out in order to magnify a false conflict that would play well on the cover of the magazine.

What's also revealing is that Dyson's contrarian stance seems to be based on his objection to relying on models too much. It turns out that models are not the primary reason Hansen is concerned. Perhaps they should have a conversation. They might even sort things out.

The reporter says he told Dyson of Hansen's response. It would be nice to hear what Dyson had to say, but the reporter doesn't provide it. You'd think the editors would insist he include it. But no, instead we get this extended bit of nonsense:

When Dyson hears about this [Hansen's response], he looks, if possible, like a person taking the longer view. He is a short, sinewy man with strawlike filaments of excitable gray hair that make him resemble an upside-down broom. Every day he dresses with the same frowzy Oxbridge formality in L. L. Bean khaki trousers (his daughter Mia is a minister in Maine), a tweed sport coat, a necktie (most often one made for him, he says, by another daughter, Emily, many years ago “in the age of primary colors”) and wool sweater-vests. On cold days he wears a second vest, one right over the other, and the effect is like a window with two sets of curtains. His smile is the real window, a delighted beam that appears to float free from his face, strangely dynamic with its electric ears and quantum nose, and his laugh is so hearty it shakes him. The smile and laughter have the effect of softening Dyson’s formality, transforming him into a sage and friendly elf, and also reminding those he talks with that he has spent a lifetime immersed in efforts to find what he considers humane solutions to dire problems, whose controversial gloss never seems to agitate him. His eyes are murky gray, and whatever he’s thinking beyond what he says, the eyes never betray.

Yes, but what did Dyson say? Or does it not matter because we can trust this man who seems to have walked right out of the pages of The Hobbit?

Finally, it is worth noting that the reporter makes a lot of Dyson's defiant sensibility. Let's not ignore Hansen's share of the same attribute, on exhibit in the same letter in which he recounted his encounter with Dawidoff. Hansen has no problem with Dyson or contrarian views, and that just blows up the premise of Dawidoff's cover story.

The story does a disservice to science, whose fundamental method is one of skepticism and constant dispute. It would be useful if the Times found a different frame to report on these issues. Magnifying false conflicts sells newspapers, but that's about it.

Here's Hansen again:

Contrarians are not the real problem – it is the vested interests who take advantage of the existence of contrarians. There is nothing wrong with having contrarian views, even from those who have little relevant expertise – indeed, good science continually questions assumptions and conclusions. But the government needs to get its advice from the most authoritative sources, not from magazine articles. In the United States the most authoritative source of information would be the National Academy of Sciences.

The fact that the current administration in the United States has not asked for such advice, when combined with continued emanations about “cap and trade”, should be a source of great concern. What I learned in visiting other countries is that most governments do not want to hear from their equivalent scientific bodies, probably because they fear the advice will be “stop building coal plants now!” These governments are all guilty of greenwash, pretending that they are dealing with the climate problem via “goals” and “caps”, while they continue to build coal plants and even investigate unconventional fossil fuels and coal-to-liquids. ...

It is incredible how governments resist the obvious (maybe not so incredible when lobbying budgets are examined, along with Washington’s revolving doors). This is not rocket science. If we want to move toward energy independence and solve the climate problem, we need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels with the public’s money and instead place a price on carbon emissions.

Hmmm. Maybe if Hansen wore a Gandalf mask, the Times would think he was really smart.

AttachmentSize
NYTimesMagazine-1.pdf13.94 KB

Re:Hansen's 1988 testimony by Anonymous on June 12th

I am well aware of Hansen's scenarios but the supposed coincidence of his scenario B with actual temperatures is purely coincidental. There was no carbon dioxide warming then and there still isn't any now but their "measured" temperature curve is badly distorted by systematic errors and lately has been helped along by the 1998 super El Nino and the twenty-first century high - a run of warm years from 2001 to 2007. Their curve does not accurately represent either - you need satellite data for that - but it gets a boost and in 2006 he was able to claim that his curve was close to the 2005 maximum, which he thought was the warmest year ever because he had no idea that the 1998 peak was higher. 2005 just happened to be in the middle of the twenty first century high but all that ended with a La Nina cooling in 2007 which bottomed out in 2008. A giant gap has now opened up between his imaginary curves and real temperatures and is likely to increase as the ENSO system takes over our climate. For your information, the 1998 super El Nino had nothing to do with carbon dioxide and was caused by Indian Ocean overflow. The twenty-first century high was due to the leftover heat from that El Nino and both were interpolated between regular ENSO peaks. But something has been left unsaid about Hansen's testimony in 1998. For that was not the first time he had testified in front of the Senate but his second time. His first time was in November 1997 and it was a bust. It was cold, no one wanted to hear about warming, and the media ignored it. This did not please Senator Wirth, chairman of the committee. But if at first you don't succeed, try, try again, and he did. He called up the Weather Bureau and asked them to tell him what the warmest day in Washington, D.C. was. It was June 23rd so he set his next hearing for that date. And to make sure that the air conditioning did not work properly he sent his staff out at night to open all the windows in the hearing room. It worked: the TV crew, the star witness, and the audience sweated profusely and global warming was on every television set that night. It is this publicity that made the IPCC possible. But look at what he was saying: we are in a warming trend and the cause of that warming is carbon dioxide. How so? Carbon dioxide in the air had been slowly increasing since 1958 and must be the cause of this warming we observe. But here is a problem: there was no warming whatsoever for the twenty years preceding 1977 but carbon dioxide had been in the air all along. How do you explain the fact that a trace gas that has been in the air for decades without causing any trouble suddenly changes its behavior and decides that it is time to start warming the world? You don't and Hansen didn't. The only explanatipon is that it must be a miracle - the miracle that founded the global warming religion we are being oppressed by today.

Hansen's 1988 testimony

My understanding of Hansen's 1988 Congressional testimony was that he presented three different scenarios for carbon emissions and subsequent warming - his highest projections have proven false because they were done using assumptions that Hansen thought unlikely but possible - large amount of volcanic eruptions for example - his mid-range scenario for carbon emissions has apparently proved quite accurate.

Since however, the testimony has become something of a lightning rod because few people that talk about it bother to read the transcript, watch the testimony, or read other scientists' conclusions. So contrarians drum up the fact that one facet of his testimony (as if ALL the divergent projections even COULD be correct at once) proved incorrect. This goofy simplism is much the same as Bjorn Lomborg's book "Cool It" - because the worst-case scenario by the IPCC isn't very likely, the entire report should be tossed. This is blatently ridiculous, scientifically lazy, and feeds nothing so much as the right-wing attack machines.

Regardless of ideology, scientifically speaking it is a bit sloppy to attack global warming by attacking twenty-year old projections - and it speaks to the ideological (as opposed to factual) bent of contrians.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-proje...

About Freeman Dyson and Hansen

Freeman Dyson is right to see Hansen as pushing extreme views on global warming. He has done so from the beginning and from the beginning his work has been questionable. To put it into perspective, lets start with the basics and do some science. In 1988 he testified to Congress about a climate catastrophe to come. He had just come out with his GISS climate program which was based on the theory that carbon dioxide was the cause of recent global warming and had extrapolated that warming to show how bad it would become by 2020. He was taken seriously and his work was used as one reason for establishing IPCC - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But what was that warming he based his calculations on? In the seventies there had been a cooling trend and in 1975 The New York Times could still write that "a major cooling of the climate" was "widely considered inevitable" because it was "well established" that the Northern Hemisphere climate "has been getting cooler since about 1950." NOAA puts out a global temperature graph (marked with the imprint NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA) that gives world temperatures from 1880 to present and is updated yearly. This is the one also shown by IPCC. If you look at the seventies on this graph you can see that the graph is pretty horizontal until a breakpoint appears about 1977 when it suddenly starts to go up. This is not something gradual but has a definite beginning there. But when you look at the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere there is nothing in particular to distinguish that point - we have good records from 1958 on showing that its increase has been strictly linear, and it still is today. There are two questions that have to be answered here: exactly what caused the world temperature to start increasing at that point, and why on earth does Hansen think that carbon dioxide is the cause? There is absolutely nothing in the carbon dioxide record to show that its behavior changed in 1977 in any way to cause warming to start. The question about temperature rise cannot be answered if we take this rise as a fact. But it is not a fact: satellite observations show that it simply did not happen! What did happen was a series of temperature oscillations with a peak to peak amplitude of 0.5 degrees Celsius, about a fixed mean value that did not change for twenty years. In other words, the NOAA temperature graph we have been shown, the one used by IPCC on whose accuracy the entire carbon dioxide warming theory depends, is simply a fiction and does not bear any relation to real temperatures! But by inputting these fictional temperatures into his computer model Hansen produced fictional outputs that were passed off to Congress when he testified in front of Congress under oath in 1988. GIGO is the word for this. If you want the science behind this look me up on ICECAP and get my PDF dated May 31st.

link please to source for Hansen's comments?

I know Dr. Hansen emailed this and it's available at his website. Can you provide the link from which you're quoting?

Thanks for covering this quickly. I'm glad to see the story debunked clearly, perhaps in time to avoid yet another game of "let's you and him fight" set up to mislead people about Dr. Hansen's opinions.

Full Text Attached Now as PDF

The e-mail had no link. I've attached a pdf of his letter, above.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <p> <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <img> <h> <h1> <h2> <h3> <ul> <li> <ol> <b> <i>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Youtube and google video links are automatically converted into embedded videos.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Images can be added to this post.

More information about formatting options