Troubling Numbers: The IEA Forecasts World Energy From Now Until 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has made a new projection of world energy to 2030 and finds that "nothing short of an energy revolution" is needed to end "patently unsustainable" trends in global energy supply and consumption.

The report, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008, assumes that no new government policies on energy and climate are introduced from now until 2030. The foreboding forecast:

World Energy Demand Rises

-- World primary energy demand expands by 1.6% per year -- an increase of 45%.

-- Demand for oil rises from 85 million barrels per day now to 106 mb/d.

-- Demand for coal rises more than any other fuel, accounting for over 1/3 of the increase in energy use.

-- Fossil fuels account for 80% of the world’s primary energy mix -- down only slightly from today.

-- Needed: energy-supply investment of $26.3 trillion to 2030, or over $1 trillion/year.

Oil Supply Prospects Worsen

-- Oilfield decline rates rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6%.

-- To offset the effect of decline, 45 mb/d of gross capacity -- roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia -- would need to be built.

Energy Prices Increase

-- The era of cheap oil is over.

-- Oil prices will rise to $200 a barrel ($120 at 2007 prices).

Renewables Grow Most Rapidly

-- Renewable technologies overtake gas soon after 2010 to become the second-largest source of electricity -- behind coal.

-- But:

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Soar Inexorably

-- Energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 45%.

-- The world is on a catastrophic path for a rise in global temperature of up to 6°C by the end of the century.

In addition to projecting the consequences of failure, the IEA details policy options for tackling climate change after 2012, when a post-Kyoto climate pact is due to take effect. The "scale of the challenge," says the IEA, is "immense."

Stabilising greenhouse gas concentration at 550 ppm of CO2-equivalent, which would limit the temperature increase to about 3°C, would require emissions to rise to no more than 33 Gt in 2030 and to fall in the longer term. The share of low-carbon energy…in the world primary energy mix would need to expand from 19% in 2006 to 26% in 2030. This would call for $4.1 trillion more investment in energy-related infrastructure and equipment than in the Reference Scenario – equal to 0.2% of annual world GDP.

To hit 450 ppm:

The scale of the challenge in limiting greenhouse gas concentration to 450 ppm of CO2-eq, which would involve a temperature rise of about 2°C, is much greater. World energy-related CO2 emissions would need to drop sharply from 2020 onwards, reaching less than 26 Gt in 2030. Achieving such an outcome would require even faster growth in the use of low-carbon energy – to account for 36% of global primary energy mix by 2030. In this case, global energy investment needs are $9.3 trillion (0.6% of annual world GDP) higher.

Keep in mind that this level of climate action, while mammoth, is an underestimate of what’s needed. Climate scientists now say that 350 ppm is the target to hit to prevent catastrophic and irreversible damage -- not 450 ppm and certainly not 550 ppm. Climate Progress explains:

The IEA is not so up on all the latest, depressing science, and it tends to temper its climate desperation with some practical short- and medium-term energy and political realities.

In the end, the IEA's generally conservative perspective is what makes the World Energy Outlook 2008 an all the more staggering wake-up call. Question now becomes: will governments listen?

Further Reading

IEA press release

WEO 2008 executive summary

WEO 2008 fact sheet

WEO 2008 key graphs

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