Government Scientists Affirm Geothermal’s Huge Energy Potential

Google likes to tout Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) as "the sleeping giant" of clean power. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), it seems, would wholeheartedly agree.

This week, USGS scientists released the agency’s first assessment in more than 30 years of the electric power generation potential of the nation’s geothermal resource.

What'd they find?

If developed, geothermal could generate 556,890 MW of electricity in the United States. That’s more than 200 times the installed geothermal capacity in the nation today, which stands at 2,500 MW.

Of that untapped total, a whopping 517,800 MW of it, roughly 93 percent, is estimated to be found in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) -- or the "unconventional" geothermal systems that require engineered reservoirs to become economical, due to a lack of water and/or permeability in the rocks.

The rest sits in a combo of identified and undiscovered "conventional" resources. No matter though, EGS is where it’s at, clearly.

Develop it successfully, says the USGS here, and

it could provide an installed geothermal electric power generation capacity equivalent to about half of the currently installed electric power generating capacity in the United States.

Dirk Kempthorne, U.S. Secretary of the Interior, said the results "point to a greater potential for geothermal power production than previous assessments," and called geothermal energy "not only a renewable resource" but one that could "significantly contribute to our domestic energy resource base."

If the USGS findings sound familiar, it's because they echo the conclusions of last year’s DOE-funded MIT study, The Future of Geothermal Energy (pdf).

In it, the authors claim that the availability of the geothermal resource base is 130,000 times America's current yearly consumption of energy. They also say that for an investment of $1 billion spread out over 15 years, EGS could be deployed on a scale that would produce more than 100,000 MW of additional new (low-emissions) capacity in the US by 2050.

Google has plugged that study and EGS all over the place. Just this week, it released a $4.4 trillion clean energy plan by 2030, with EGS front and center. Here’s how it would work:

We propose something radically different. Onshore and offshore wind could grow from about 20 GW today to 380 GW, generating 29% of 2030 demand. Solar, both photovoltaic and concentrating solar power (CSP), could grow from about 1 GW today to 250 GW, generating 12% of demand. Geothermal, both conventional and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS; see below), could grow from 2.4 GW today to 80 GW, generating 15% of demand. Together with modest projected expansion of other non-fossil energy sources, including nuclear (115 GW), hydro (78 GW), and biomass and municipal waste (23 GW), about 90% of demand could be met.

There's more. Last month Google announced a brand-new EGS initiative, as part of its effort to make renewables cheaper than coal. Dan Reicher, Director of Climate and Energy Initiatives for Google.org, explains why:

EGS could be the "killer app" of the energy world. It has the potential to deliver vast quantities of power 24/7 and be captured nearly anywhere on the planet. And it would be a perfect complement to intermittent sources like solar and wind.

And: The company has just linked up with GE to advance EGS R&D. All of which is to say that it's nice to see hot rocks getting high-profile attention and investment dollars from deep pockets because:

Geothermal is a critical, baseload clean energy source. The US is filthy rich in it. It's time to tap it.

The sad thing is that development will not fall ultimately in the hands of Google (however mighty) or USGS scientists (however brilliant), but in the unreliable hands of Congress, whose members haven't come close to passing tax credits for renewable energy all year.

Geothermal development needs tax incentives and a long-term federal commitment to renewable energy innovation.

So, to Congress: Listen to the USGS scientists, to whom your own government sends funds, take a long-overdue leadership role and help to realize a national clean energy vision.

Today.

Update: In the afternoon of October 3, Congress approved the extension of the expiring production and investment tax credits for renewable energy, as part of the $700 billion Wall Street bail-out package. The existing production tax credit for large-scale geothermal was extended for two years. The bill was quickly signed into law by President Bush.

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