Has Earth's "Tipping Point" Arrived?

Nine of Earth's ecological systems are in danger of being "tipped" into irreversible, dangerous states -- beyond the point of repair. Obvious, to some. But what's staggering is just how quickly it could happen.

That's the latest finding from a prestigious group of climate scientists. It grabbed the attention of the mainstream media. And it could redefine the climate threat.

Take India's monsoon summer. The experts have predicted that it could collapse within one year. Yes: one year. The loss of which could devastate. Here's at least one reason why, courtesy of Wikipedia:

The monsoons play a critical role in the Indian sub-continent's agriculture in determining whether the harvest will be bountiful, average, or poor in any given year. The entire rainfall in the sub-continent is concentrated in the few monsoon months.

The Arctic summer sea-ice has about ten years left before it goes into irreversible decline.

Here's the full list of the scientists' climate "tipping points," summed up by the BBC:

• Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (about 1 year)
• Melting of Arctic sea-ice (about 10 years)
• Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (about 10 years)
• Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (about 50 years)
• Dieback of the Boreal Forest (about 50 years)
• Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (about 100 years)
• Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (about 100 years)
• Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (about 300 years)
• Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (about 300 years)

The full study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Journal. And it should persuade.

The research team was made up of some of the world's most prestigious organizations. The Guardian reports that the scientists polled 52 environmental experts and combined their responses with discussions among 36 leading climate researchers.

Here's lead author Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia (UEA) with a plea to the world for non-complacency on climate. On science grounds alone:

Society must not be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under human-induced climate change. The greatest threats are tipping of the Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland ice sheet, and at least five other elements could surprise us by exhibiting a nearby tipping point.

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