Bali Climate Conference Roundup, Last Day: Deal Reached?

It was touch-and-go there for a while. US obstruction. EU threats. Al Gore's intervention. Deadlock. And yet, here's the email we got from the National Environmental Trust at 1:56 PM EST, Friday (2:56 AM, Saturday, Bali Time):

Subject: BREAKING: Deal reached at Bali climate change negotiations

But take a look at NET's follow-up statement, received at 3:47 PM EST. Is this a deal in the US delegation's eyes only?

While the U.S. delegation is satisfied with text and represented that there is a deal, there are at least two issues in some contention:

Some developing countries are upset that 25/40 appears to have been agreed to be a footnote to the preamble, relegating it to less importance in their view. There is also a controversy over whether developing country emissions reduction measures should be called "actions" or "contributions," and their linkage to technology and financing.

Negotiations stopped around 2:30 a.m. Saturday, December 15, Bali time, with the U.S. claiming a deal had been reached. In particular, they said they were happy with the preamble. Other parties are describing the situation as volatile. Some observers say the G77 is unhappy with the entire process and may have difficulty getting a consensus as their members are briefed tomorrow. COP president has called plenary for 8a.m. Bali time, 7p.m. EST,which will force resolutions or objections in public.

The G-77 may be unhappy, but it seems the EU's on board. From the AFP:

We have a compromise, which is a good situation for everybody, German
Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel said without expanding.

The Guardian reports that in fact the EU cow-towed to US demands, making a compromise possible. It dropped its insistence that the deal include language stating that industrialized nations must cut emissions within a range of 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. It seems it's been relegated to a footnote in the preambular text. But the meaningless long-term goal of a 50 percent reduction by 2050 still has a shot of making it in. From the AP:

Trying to break the deadlock, the conference president, Indonesia's Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar, proposed revised language dropping those mid-range numbers, but still reaffirming that emissions should be reduced at least by half by 2050.

Is there anything of substance in this draft? Doesn't look that way. AP:

Witoelar's proposal provided a basis for the long-expected compromise, producing a relatively vague mandate for two years of negotiations. As worded, his draft "Bali Roadmap" did not guarantee any level of binding commitment by any nation.

This is not good news.

The Bush team fought hard for a reason. The president's term expires in January 2009. Now until then comprises a huge chunk of the time earmarked to negotiate the next treaty. If the Bush team can successfully freeze the status quo in step one of the negotiations, which it appears it may have done, then real progress becomes that much more difficult to achieve.

It's no wonder that Gore yesterday was calling on the world to move ahead without the US. He called on nations do the difficult work now and leave a blank space to which the next president can sign. He wasn't kidding.

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