Bali Climate Conference Roundup, Day 9

The Bali climate conference is in its final stretch. Ministerial talks begin tomorrow. Here's where things stand: The US is positioning itself as number one roadblock, while China is opting for constructive participation for the first time. In spite of the standoff, a Bali roadmap is still likely to emerge with US inclusion. Mainly because it has to. Another Kyoto-style agreement without the world's largest carbon polluter and economy would be a failure for every nation.

The sticking points are many, but the biggest potential deal breaker involves commitments to mandatory emissions for developing nations. The US wants voluntary commitments only. So does Canada. The EU and just about every other industrialized nation want binding targets.

That spells deadlock.

Fearing delay, UN top gun Ban Ki Moon was forced to step in with a warning:

“The situation is so desperately serious that any delay could push us past the tipping point, beyond which the ecological, financial and human costs would increase dramatically. We are at a crossroads: one path leads to a comprehensive climate change agreement, the other one to oblivion.”

The US is not going to capitulate on the target issue. The writing is on the wall, in permanent marker.

The delegation has already lined up against a three-page draft proposal because it included a call for developed nations to reduce emissions 25 to 40 percent by 2020. It was just a guiding principle. Not legally binding. And the US had already agreed to it at the G8 meeting earlier in the year.

And still, dukes up.

Which begs the question, with all the hoopla around targets and US resistance, is there any reason for optimism out there? Is a deal even possible? Yes. Because the goals of the talks are actually less ambitious than what's repeated in the media echo chamber. Here's UNFCCC Executive Secretary today:

"This conference will not produce an agreement on concrete emissions reduction targets or specific targets per country. It's not supposed to do that. It's supposed to set the wheels in motion in terms of launching a process into the future. Having said that, the draft text for that process, which we call a non-paper and what you've seen, does still include the emission reduction range of 25 to 40 percent by 2020 as something to guide parties when they begin discussing emissions reduction targets at a later stage.

Now does that mean that therefore that range is binding? No. Does that mean that all countries have to be inside that range? No. It means that the sum total should be somewhere within that range. So contrary to some reports, these figures do not prejudge the outcomes."

The full update is here:

In other news, the World Bank announced the development of two new funds, one to reduce deforestation and one to allow nations to earn and sell carbon credits from curbing deforestation. Both could be part of a post-Kyoto deal.

Parties are also considering including carbon capture and storage (CCS) as an activity under Kyoto's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). It's particularly good news for nations expected to rely strongly on the use of coal in the future. A bone thrown to the US and China, perhaps?

And Kyoto turned ten today. Happy Birthday! At the half-hearted celebration, Japan likened the treaty to a "wayward child."

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