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Oil Running Out Faster Than Anticipated
by David Sassoon - Oct 22nd, 2007
in
In a new report, Germany's Energy Watch Group says global oil production has already peaked and will sharply decline over the next 25 years. Here's how the Guardian is telling the story:
The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.
Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day - Energy Watch Group expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.
Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
Instead of relying on estimates of oil reserves, the report examines
actual production data which shows that despite an unprecedented rise
in prices, oil companies have been unable to increase production over
the last ten years.
The report concludes: "The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system" and warns that the message on oil supply, carried by the International Energy Agency, "that business as usual will be possible in the future, sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers."
And even so, 42 years of oil reserves, the optimistic industry projection!
Is that really it?
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