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Who Will Get the Evangelical Vote?
by Stacy Feldman - Oct 10th, 2007
No one knows. But everyone cares because in 2004 Bush got about 80 percent of the white Evangelical vote. That's 18 percent of the electorate.
Here are some scattered facts/observations to feed the speculation:
- Today we learned that Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Center Action, predicted that Rudy couldn't get 50 percent of the Evangelical vote. We already sort of knew this because of the Utah meeting over the weekend, where James Dobson et al voted on a statement saying no way to any pro-choicers, and hinted at propping up a third-party candidate.
- Today we also learned that Tony Perkins thinks Fred Thompson has "a lot to offer" and has met with him a few times. Scary. Although Dobson has said he doesn't even think Thomspon's a Christian, so he's not likely to get the nod of approval any way.
- A while back the National Association of Evangelicals (30 million members) added climate change to its agenda for the first time ever. It made a stink about it. Defended the choice against leaders like Dobson and Perkins, who sought to humiliate the NAE on the issue. It's clearly not up for compromise. And yet we all know that climate is not an issue that the GOP candidates are dealing with in any meaningful way.
So there's this apparent split in the Evangelical camp. We have no idea who the leaders are going to endorse. For all we know, Dobson's not bluffing, and his camp could abandon the GOP in favor of a third-party someone, or no one.
And then there's climate change, which has caused some very public fissures. But what we don't know is if it's become such a big issue for the NAE and others that it will affect the moderate Evangelical vote? Will they vote with climate in mind?
On the one hand, how could they not, right, with such bold, political efforts like the Evangelical Climate Initiative and others?
But on the other, how could they prioritize climate change when they have to support the top-tier wedge issues, like abortion, gun control, and gay marriage? Can they realistically do both?
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